WTO lifts goods-trade forecast as AI investment offsets disruption

The forecast revision

The WTO has upgraded its 2026 merchandise trade-volume forecast to 3.9 per cent from the 1.9 per cent projected in March, while cutting expected services trade-volume growth to 3.3 per cent from 4.8 per cent.

The October 8 update forecasts goods growth of 4.1 per cent in 2027 and services growth of 6.4 per cent. These are volume forecasts and should remain distinct from current-money export values and from already observed trade.

Actual first-half goods trade volume increased 3.5 per cent. AI-related semiconductor and server trade grew 67 per cent year over year and accounted for 47 per cent of global merchandise trade growth. The contribution figure refers to growth, not to a claim that those products represent nearly half of all global trade.

The WTO also forecasts world GDP growth of 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2.9 per cent in 2027. AI infrastructure capital investment is expected to rise at least 30 per cent this year and 10–20 per cent next year. That projected investment path is part of the outlook, rather than a realised annual total.

Disruption and supply adaptation

First-half Middle Eastern crude-oil exports fell 24 per cent and LNG exports 47 per cent. Additional supply elsewhere limited the declines in global exports to six per cent for crude oil and one per cent for LNG.

The regional and global figures illustrate different outcomes from the same disruption. Supply substitution elsewhere can cushion the global result while the affected region still records a large decline.

Nitrogen-fertiliser imports were 2.8 per cent below the recent average, while phosphatic fertiliser imports were 2.2 per cent above it. Container throughput increased 3.9 per cent year to date through July. The update describes adaptation through alternative ports and energy and fertiliser supply, alongside the demand associated with AI investment.

Services retain different measures

Commercial services export values rose 14 per cent year over year in the first quarter and ten per cent in the second. Travel spending growth slowed from 15 per cent to five per cent. Tourist arrivals fell 0.8 per cent in the second quarter but rose 0.4 per cent in the first half, according to the UN Tourism figures cited by the WTO.

Computer-services export values grew 18 per cent in the first quarter and an estimated 12 per cent in the second. Financial-services exports grew 14 per cent in the second quarter. These sector findings concern nominal values, while the headline services forecast concerns volume.

Spending growth, visitor counts and price-adjusted trade each describe a different part of the services account. Retaining the labels avoids interpreting the travel spending slowdown as an identical change in tourist numbers.

Regional outcomes

Goods-export volume is forecast to rise 9.9 per cent in Asia, 5.7 per cent in North America, 5.6 per cent in Africa and 3.4 per cent in South America. Declines are forecast at 0.1 per cent in Europe, 3.9 per cent in CIS and 17.2 per cent in the Middle East.

Goods-import volume forecasts are 9.5 per cent for Asia, 8.9 per cent for Africa, 8.8 per cent for CIS, 1.4 per cent for North America and 0.5 per cent for Europe, with a 15.4 per cent decline for the Middle East. Import and export paths differ within regions as well as between them.

For services exports, the forecasts are Europe 4.6 per cent, Asia four per cent, Africa 3.1 per cent, North America and CIS 1.7 per cent each, and South/Central America and the Caribbean 1.3 per cent. The Middle East is forecast to decline 10.3 per cent. Europe accounts for more than half of expected global services-export growth.

Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala calls for policy stability. That is the WTO leadership’s stated position within an outlook combining stronger goods growth with disruption and uneven regional performance.