UK diesel van fuel costs could rise by £2.5 billion as duty plans draw criticism

British diesel van and pickup owners could spend almost £8.5 billion at the pump in 2026, an increase of roughly £2.5 billion from the £5.95 billion spent last year, according to Moneysupermarket analysis for the Guardian.

The modelling puts the average van’s annual fuel cost at £1,965, compared with £1,294 in 2025, based on typical mileage and consumption. Individual bills will differ, and the figures describe an estimated full-year burden rather than completed spending for every vehicle.

The exposure remains substantial because about 95% of light commercial vehicles use diesel. Electric-van adoption is increasing, but the report also links growth in the overall van fleet to online shopping, home deliveries and self-employment in trades.

The Guardian attributes rising prices to a global fuel shortage and disruption to refineries in the Middle East and Russia. The average UK pump price exceeded £2 a litre this month and rose over 40% since late February, when the US-Israel war on Iran began disrupting supplies of crude oil and refined fuels from the Gulf.

RAC data cited in the report show that a recent decline in diesel prices has not removed the gap with pre-conflict levels. Diesel remains about 57p a litre higher and petrol about 42p higher, translating to an extra £31 and £23 respectively for a family-sized car fill.

The report raises the possibility that retailers will pass higher road-transport costs into food and goods prices. That is a potential transmission of the cost pressure, rather than a measured price increase for every product.

The planned duty increase was postponed from September. As reported, it would add 3p a litre from January 1, 2027 and another 2p from March 1. Fuel duty charges and VAT form distinct parts of a pump price: duty is levied on the fuel quantity, while VAT is charged as a proportion of the selling price.

Richard Smith, managing director of the Road Haulage Association, said many members operate on margins of around 2%. He said some firms were paying thousands more each week for fuel and warned that an additional duty rise would intensify costs for transport businesses and the households buying their goods.

The RHA is seeking a 15p-per-litre rebate for British van, coach and haulage operators, citing comparable help for commercial-vehicle businesses in Spain, France and Italy.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said 2026 was on course to be the second most expensive year on record for drivers. He called for the government to extend and increase its fuel-duty cut or reduce VAT.

The Guardian contacted the government for comment. The inspected report includes no response or acceptance of the industry’s requested relief, so the calls and the reported tax timetable remain separate.

The wider fuel-supply backdrop includes an October 9 US announcement of an agreement concerning Russian diesel, which the Guardian said drew Ukrainian objections. That announcement does not establish an easing of UK pump prices.