Thai central-bank official sees conditional path back to 3% growth

Thailand could regain economic growth of about 3% within two to three years if it addresses structural constraints and avoids negative shocks, Bank of Thailand deputy governor Piti Disyatat told Reuters in an interview published by CNA on October 14.

Piti, the deputy governor responsible for monetary stability, expected growth of 2.3% or slightly higher in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. He described the central bank’s baseline scenario as a return to a 2.8%–3% range in 2028. His assessment of longer-term potential trend growth was in the same range.

The interview, conducted on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings, linked that outlook to reforms and the absence of damaging shocks. Piti said some constraints could be alleviated through action within Thailand’s control.

Potential growth concerns the expansion of an economy’s sustainable productive capacity. A forecast for actual growth in a particular year also reflects demand and shocks. That distinction matters when comparing Piti’s longer-term assessment with his lower forecast for 2027.

The central bank’s policy would remain accommodative for now, Piti said, with the policy rate at 1.00%. He expected eventual normalisation when the economy was ready. In this setting, accommodative policy means borrowing conditions intended to support activity; normalisation would move away from the unusually low level as conditions permit.

Piti said he did not foresee rate reductions. A cut would be hard to envisage unless a major shock hit, he told Reuters, describing 1% as a historically low rate outside crisis periods.

The Bank of Thailand kept the rate unchanged in August. It had cut six times between October 2024 and February 2026, reducing the rate by a combined 150 basis points, or 1.5 percentage points. Its next policy review is scheduled for October 28.

Reuters reported that weak demand and persistently high household debt had constrained Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy. Annual GDP growth fell to 1.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from 2.8% in the first. The slowdown gives context to Piti’s support for maintaining an accommodative stance while reserving another cut for a substantial shock.

Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas told Reuters in September that growth could reach 2.5% in 2027 and potentially 3% within three years. Reuters linked his outlook to government efforts to bring new investment into sectors such as semiconductors and data centres.

The same report recalled a September assessment from Don Nakornthab, the central bank’s assistant governor for monetary policy. He estimated potential growth at 2.7% and said reaching it could take four to five years.

Piti’s October interview pointed toward a similar broad objective of faster sustainable growth, while giving a higher potential range and shorter horizon than Don’s earlier comments. His 1.8% forecast for 2027 was also below the minister’s 2.5%.