Petrojam expects steadier fuel supplies, with oil risks still in view

Oil supply improves, with conditions attached

Petrojam expects adequate fuel supplies and relatively contained price movements through the remainder of 2026, provided the Middle East avoids a fresh major upheaval, general manager Kenneth Walker said at an ICAJ business conference in Kingston.

The Gleaner reported that increased crude exports from the region had helped moderate world prices. Walker’s assessment offers a more stable near-term supply outlook, but it remains exposed to international events. Jamaica obtains most of its fuel outside the Middle East; the origin of those purchases does not isolate the country from global oil pricing or disruption along shipping routes.

Brent crude was around US$101 a barrel on October 5, compared with levels above US$110 during parts of August. The comparison describes an easing in the international benchmark from those earlier levels. It does not establish a corresponding reduction in Jamaican retail petrol prices, which concern a different product and stage of the supply chain.

The local price comparison

Petrojam’s wholesale price for 87-octane petrol stood at J$209.62 per litre on October 1, below earlier levels above J$220. The wholesale figure gives a more direct indication of local fuel costs than the crude benchmark, although it still precedes the price charged to motorists at filling stations.

Shipping and logistics problems can delay the effect of lower international prices, Walker said. The timing matters for consumers: an easing in the raw-material market is not necessarily an immediate easing in the cost of fuel already moving through the supply chain.

Walker also said Jamaica’s fiscal position had allowed mitigation through Petrojam. That is his assessment of the authorities’ ability to soften the impact. The report does not quantify the resulting saving to an individual household or establish that every earlier increase was absorbed. His year-end outlook remains conditional on the international environment rather than a commitment to a particular pump price.

Earlier shocks may still lift inflation

Economist Keenan Falconer warned that the full effect of earlier energy shocks had yet to appear in consumer prices. Annual inflation reached 7.9% in August, against 7.5% in July, the Gleaner reported.

Falconer said shocks during March to June could become more apparent between December and the first quarter of the following year. His warning concerns the lag between an initial rise in energy costs and its later appearance in the prices households pay. It is not a confirmed announcement of a new fuel increase.

The two assessments address different points in that process. Walker discussed supply and fuel-price conditions for the remaining months of the year. Falconer discussed how costs already incurred could continue to move through the economy. Their views can coexist: a calmer oil market does not erase all the effects of its earlier disruption.

For Jamaican consumers, the unresolved question is how quickly the more favourable international conditions reach local prices while businesses are still dealing with earlier costs. The report supports a conditional fuel outlook and a warning about delayed inflation; it does not establish a guaranteed fall in either measure.